Map
Framework

Theory of change and logic model

The question it answers

A programme manager has to show a funder how activities lead to the promised results: what pathway links them, and which indicator tracks each step?

Origin
James Bell Associates, 2018
Diagram type
Process by phase
Level of analysis
Firm
Topics
Data & analyticsBusiness consulting
Magnifying lens over a line chart tile, icon for data and analytics

Diagram

Theory of change and logic model

  1. Theory of change
  2. Problem and assumptionsState the root problem and what you believe but have not yet proved.
  3. Desired outcomes and pathwaysLink each activity to an outcome through if-then statements.
  4. Logic model
  5. InputsFunding, people, technology, the group served.
  6. ActivitiesWhat you do to address the problem.
  7. OutputsImmediately countable results: sessions run, people completing.
  8. OutcomesChanges in knowledge, behaviour and long-term impact, with indicators to track.

Pitfalls

Pitfall

Writing long-term outcomes while skipping the assumptions that need testing (for example, "customers will sign up" needs real sign-up data).

Sources

References

Listed A–Z by author surname, Harvard style. A source with a DOI links to https://doi.org/…; one without links to its page or says plainly that it has no DOI.

  1. James Bell Associates (2018) Guide to data-driven decision making: using data to inform practice and policy decisions in child welfare organizations. Washington, DC: Children's Bureau, Administration for Children and Families, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.No DOIjbassoc.comCited in 1 article