Framework

The hype cycle

The question it answers

Before backing a much-talked-about new technology, how can a leadership team tell whether it sits at the peak of hype, in the trough, or nearing real productivity?

Origin
Fenn and Raskino, 2008
Diagram type
Process by phase
Level of analysis
Industry
Topics
Strategy & leadership
Chess knight on a glass compass, icon for strategy and leadership

Diagram

The hype cycle

  1. Five stages
  2. Technology trigger
  3. Peak of inflated expectations
  4. Trough of disillusionment
  5. Slope of enlightenment
  6. Plateau of productivity

Pitfalls

Pitfall

Placing generative AI in the trough of disillusionment usually comes without a source; treat any such placement with caution.

Sources

References

Listed A–Z by author surname, Harvard style. A source with a DOI links to https://doi.org/…; one without links to its page or says plainly that it has no DOI.

  1. Fenn, J. and Raskino, M. (2008) Mastering the hype cycle: how to choose the right innovation at the right time. Boston, MA: Harvard Business Press.No DOISource page