Framework

Seasonal-index and trend forecasting

The question it answers

When planning next year's production or purchasing, how should an operations manager forecast monthly demand that has seasonality and trend, and measure the forecast error?

Origin
Hyndman and Athanasopoulos, 2021
Diagram type
Process by phase
Level of analysis
Firm
Topics
Data & analyticsSupply chain & operations
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Diagram

Seasonal-index and trend forecasting

  1. Seasonal-index and trend method
  2. Deseasonalise using seasonal indices
  3. Fit a linear trend to the adjusted series
  4. Extrapolate the trend
  5. Re-apply the seasonal indices
  6. Score with MAPE

Sources

References

Listed A–Z by author surname, Harvard style. A source with a DOI links to https://doi.org/…; one without links to its page or says plainly that it has no DOI.

  1. Hyndman, R.J. and Athanasopoulos, G. (2021) Forecasting: Principles and Practice, 3rd edn.No DOIotexts.comSource page