Framework
Debiasing on three fronts
The question it answers
Before settling an important decision, how can a manager broaden their view of the future, their objectives and their options so bias does not narrow the choice?
- Origin
- Soll, Milkman and Payne, 2015
- Diagram type
- Comparison table
- Level of analysis
- Individual
- Topics
- Strategy & leadership
Diagram
Debiasing on three fronts
| Criterion | Front | What usually happens | Technique |
|---|---|---|---|
| The future | Thinking of one scenario | A single forecast or an over-narrow range | Three estimates (low-medium-high); think twice and average; premortem; outside view |
| Objectives | Holding only a few goals | Missing important objectives | List your own first, then ask others; take objectives one at a time before combining |
| Options | Only one choice on the table | Framing as yes/no, building false choices | Generate 3–5 real options; compare side by side rather than one by one |
Pitfalls
Pitfall
Knowing about a bias is not enough to avoid it; you need a process that forces a wider view.
Sources
References
Listed A–Z by author surname, Harvard style. A source with a DOI links to https://doi.org/…; one without links to its page or says plainly that it has no DOI.
- Soll, J.B., Milkman, K.L. and Payne, J.W. (2015) ‘Outsmart your own biases’, Harvard Business Review, 93(5).No DOIhbr.orgSource page
- Soll, J.B., Milkman, K.L. and Payne, J.W. (2015) ‘A user's guide to debiasing’, in The Wiley Blackwell handbook of judgment and decision making (eds G. Keren and G. Wu). Chichester: Wiley, pp. 924–951.doi:10.1002/9781118468333.ch33Source page